Labour Support collapses over Iraq Poll trend could put party out of power in May vote

LABOUR'S popularity in Scotland is collapsing because of Tony Blair's tough line on Iraq, according to an opinion poll conducted exclusively for The Herald. NFO System Three found nationwide hostility to a war against Saddam Hussein without clear UN backing - and a sudden eight-point drop in support for Labour in the latest monthly opinion poll. Such a showing in the Scottish elections in May would make it mathematically possible for the SNP and Liberal Democrats to oust Labour from government and form a coalition with minority party backing.

...According to System Three, only 13% of Scots voters agree that Britain should take part in a war against Iraq regardless of whether the UN supports military action. A further 27% said Britain should not take part in military action under any circumstances. The only comfort for Labour and Mr Blair is the finding that 57% agree that Britain should take part in military action if it is supported by a UN security resolution. The corrosive effect electorally of such resistance to Mr Blair's hard line was revealed in System Three's monthly poll across Scotland, where Labour has dropped from being 10 points ahead of the SNP in the constituencies to only one in the space of a month.

NFO System 3 This poll was taken among 1009 people in 51 constituencies between January 30 and February 6, 2003. The Herald, 08/02/03

This poll would give the Scottish Socialist Party 5 MSP's in the Scottish Parliament.

Holyrood Poll 1st Vote
Party	Vote Now		% Change
Scottish Labour Party	32%		-8%
Scottish National Party	31%		+1%
Scottish Liberal Democrats	16%		+3%
Scottish Socialist Party	5%		+1%
Scottish Green Party	3%		+1%
Others	2%		+1%

Holyrood Poll 2nd Vote
Party	Vote Now		% Change
Scottish Labour Party	28%		-1%
Scottish National Party	28%		-3%
Scottish Liberal Democrats	17%		+2%
Scottish Conservative	10%		No Change
Scottish Socialist Party	7%		+ No Change
Scottish Green Party	6%		+1%
Others	4%		+1%